Special Foreign Affairs Thursday: Kyrgyzstan

I haven't done one of these in awhile. I'm sure you've missed them. I always like to comment on uprisings, though, so here we go. First, una mapa:



The past days' unrest in Kyrgyzstan (in pinkish-red above), one of the Central Asian republics that was formerly part of the Soviet Union, appears to have led to the overthrow of the government, which was seen as corrupt and increasingly repressive. There are several interesting facets of these events to consider:

1. The "camel's nose in the tent" effect. Compared to its neighbors, K-stan (which I will now call it to make typing easier) was the most free country in its neighborhood (that's not saying a whole lot, though). Freedom House gave it scores of 5 and 4 on political rights and civil liberties, respectively (with 7 being the worst; compare this to scores of 7 and 7 for neighboring Uzbekistan).

I don't think it's accidental that a freer state experienced an uprising. People who are completely repressed are easier to keep in line. But if you give citizens a few freedoms (K-staners had rights to assemble and form unions) they not only cherish, exercise, and become used to these rights, they want more of them. That's why it can be helpful when authoritarian leaders grant small, incremental freedoms, such as elections, rigged though they may be. They may seem minimal and token at the time, but they can snowball. People in K-stan were fed up, and thought they had the right to do something about it.

2. The temptations of power are strong. In the 2005 Tulip Revolution, K-stan's President Akayev was overthrown, and a dude named Bakiyev took over promising less corruption and nepotism. But he quickly succumbed to the allure of power, becoming arguable worse than his predecessor. That led residents of K-stan to rise up again.

3. Implications for the US. This country is important because it hosts Manas Air Base, an important staging point for transporting supplies into Afghanistan for the war effort. This has prompted the US to spend a lot of money to ensure the base stays open, despite Russian desires that it close. It also led the US to look the other way on some of Bakiyev's abuses. This has not endeared the US with opposition figures in K-stan.

The change in government could put the base in danger of closure, depending on what the new K-stan government decides to do. Hopefully, the US can work with the new government not only to keep the base open, but to help the new leaders govern in a way that reduces corruption and increases freedom. This former resident of K-stan thinks we have an opening:

This time around the US needs to actively support acting PM Otonbaeva [the apparent new leader]. She is a great friend of the US (indeed she was the first Kyrgyz Ambassador to the US) and is one of the few members of the political class not tainted utterly with corruption and nepotism.

Here's hoping things turn out well there, although it will surely be an uphill battle.