Foreign Affairs: Fun with Flotillas

In regards to the Israeli incident out in the Mediterranean this week, I have no sympathy for the so-called humanitarians on board the boats.  They didn't set out to help needy people; they wanted to instigate an incident.  If they had wanted to merely deliver food, they would have found another way. The fact that they assaulted the Israeli soldiers who rappelled down to the ship during the raid proves this.  I also believe Israel has the right to a) blockade Gaza and b) stop this ship for trying to contravene the blockade.

That being the case, though, Israel did not handle the situation well, to say the least.  In fact, they played into the hands of those on the ships.  Israel's leaders knew what the flotilla was all about, they knew the world was watching, and they knew the international community and the press dislikes them and would not give Israel the benefit of the doubt when reporting this story.  So there was no way raiding the ship was going to turn out well, from a PR perspective, which is the only perspective that matters here.

I'm not sure what the best way to proceed would have been.  Fred Kaplan at Slate reviews the raid critically from a tactical and strategic perspective.  One other option would have been to disable the ship (say, take out the propeller) and tow it into port.  But a commando raid seems ill-advised.

People have expressed awe that Israel would act with such impudence.  Like I said, though, Israel was in line for international condemnation no matter what it did.  That being the case, why should they bother with appeasing the rest of the world?

There are, however, some considerations Israel has to make.  The first of these is the United States.  Obama has already shown that he is willing to distance the US from Israel.  An act such as this gives Obama cover to further distance us from them, should he so choose.  We provide assistance to Israel in the form of money, weapons, Security Council vetoes, and public support.  These benefits are in danger, especially the last two.

Second is Turkey.  As a Muslim nation, and one that has the potential to influence events in Syria and Iran, they have been an important ally.  Since the ship that was attacked was full of Turkish people, and this flotilla was at least partly organized in Turkey, Turkey isn't too happy.  Of course, they knew that their role in this incident wouldn't please Israel.  It appears that Turkey wants to sever their relationship with Israel, and this incident will help that along nicely.  This will help Turkey, with its growing influence, to take a greater leadership role in its part of the world.  It will gain greater street cred, so to speak, from Middle Eastern countries.

Third is the Iran issue.  The international community hasn't showed a whole lot of urgency in regards to Iran nukes.  Israel more than anyone has reason to be concerned about said nukes, and with the international community's sympathy for Israel decreasing by the day, the likelihood of any concrete action on Iran is reduced.

Fourth is the Gaza blockade.  Israel will probably have to get rid of it.  Egypt, which had closed its border with Gaza, opened it up after the incident.  Although Israel is normally indifferent to world opinion, they might have to give in on Gaza, especially if, as is planned, a large number of boats make new attempts to break the blockade.

In the end, while some will attempt to defend Israel and argue that they had every right to do what they did, it will be for naught.  The international community has made up its mind, and this event will only hurt Israel.

UPDATE: Here's a video about the reporting of the incident that was passed along to me.