Foreign Affairs Friday: Honduras

This weekend could be eventful as far as the political situation in Honduras is concerned. As you recall, Honduran President Zelaya, a buddy of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, broached the topic of getting rid of the one-term limit on presidents, a popular ploy for wannabe dictators. The government there, including the military, the Supreme Court, and Zelaya's own political party, united in opposition to this. The removed him from power, deciding to send him to exile rather than arresting him, in hopes of reducing domestic turmoil. The world sadly has sided largely with Zelaya, condemning Honduras far more than they did Iran after its election shenanigans. Now, the former President of Costa Rica is attempting to mediate the situation.

At the same time, though, Zelaya is thinking of making a second attempt to return to the country. His first attempt, via airplane, was turned back. He and his people have made some ominous statements:

"The establishment and installation of an alternative seat of government will be to direct what I will call the final battle" against leaders of the coup that toppled Zelaya, [foreign minister, Patricia Rodas] said.

"The people have the right to insurrection. It's a constitutional right," [Zelaya] added, saying Honduras' constitution stipulated that no citizen had to obey a "usurper regime."

It is clear that Zelaya is willing to provoke mass unrest in order to get his way. It also seems clear that he wants to emulate Hugo Chavez (who has a lot at stake here) in gaining extraconstitutional power. What's not clear is how this will be resolved. Neither Zelaya or the current president seem to be backing down. The de facto Honduran regime doesn't have much international support, so it seems likely to have to relent eventually, but the next election is scheduled for November, so hopefully they can delay and extract concessions that will ensure that any Zelaya return to power is short and uneventful.