Foreign Affairs Friday: How Will North Korea Land?

I agree with this analysis (which is a few years old) of the potential future of North Korea:

Andrei Lankov, senior lecturer at the Australian National University, writes: "in the long run the system appears doomed. Sooner or later the gradual disintegration of the police and security apparatus, increasing access to unauthorized information along with manifold social changes will bring it down, probably, in a chain of dramatic, even cataclysmic events."

There is hope is many circles that North Korea can have a "soft landing," in which it gradually reforms and improves, similar to how China has, while remaining a separate nation. Only then would talk of Korean unification occur. East Germany collapsed peacefully but suddenly in 1989, and the large gap between incomes of East vs. West Germans created much expense for, and resentment in, the latter to bring the former up to modern standards. But the gap between the two Germanys is much smaller than that between the two Koreas. While South Korea is one of the world's most advanced, prosperous nations, North Korea is one of the poorest and most backwards.

However, this is not what North Koreans think. Due to the extreme lengths Kim Jong-Il and his regime go to to suppress information (phones are rare, TVs and radios only tune to government channels, etc.), North Koreans think they're doing OK, and their southern brothers are the poor ones.

This is what creates the problem. If North Korea were to open up and reform its economy, as China has done, interactions with foreigners would increase, and North Koreans would learn more and more information about the outside world and how backwards their country is. This could lead to violent revolt or massive emigration. It is unlikely North Koreans would accept their current situation for long if they knew how bad it really was. Therefore, the regime there cannot follow the Chinese path to prosperity. China has created some danger for its regime with its gradual opening, but the danger to the Jong-Il regime is much higher. That's why they have to engage in illegal activities and nuclear blackmail to bring in revenue in lieu of economic growth.

The US, South Korea, and China will have to prepare for the day when a "hard landing" occurs. Major issues will be large numbers of refugees, unguarded nuclear material, rash North Korean military action, major humanitarian needs, and potential for US-China conflict as the two countries' militaries potentially come into close proximity while trying to stabilize a collapsed North Korea. While we can all hope for a better day for the people of North Korea, getting there will not be easy.