Foreign Affairs Friday: Demographics

Earlier this week, I linked to a column about Russia's declining demographics, which are due to high drinking and low fertility. There are a number of other countries about which dire predictions are being made as well (Foreign Policy has a good list). Let's take a look at a few:

• China has an overabundance of males, due to a preference for males inspired by the one-child policy. Men with no marriage prospects are considered to be dangerous; these "bare branches" can become involved in crime, gangs, and other destabilizing activity. A growing China that borders on a shrinking Russia could portend future conflict. India also hasChina also has the problem of a looming boom in its senior population. China could "grow old before it gets rich," as the saying goes, and the old folks will be unable to support themselves, as China has no pension system.
  

• Europe is getting old. Fertility rates in many countries are below replacement rate. In countries with large welfare systems, workers are needed to pay for them, so a lack of young people does not bode well for European budgets. The US has a similar problem,with the retirement of the baby boomers, but to a lesser extent because our birthrate is higher. Japan is also getting old, and it does not allow for much immigration, making its problem worse.
  

• While advanced societies are not reproducing, poor ones are. In Africa, this can lead to starvation, disease, and further poverty. In the Middle East, this can create large populations of disaffected, unemployed youth susceptible to radicalization. Many say that family planning is needed to lift these areas out of poverty, but I think that is backwards: prosperity is the best birth control. As incomes go up, infant mortality goes down and education goes up, and children are no longer needed to help support the family. Thus, fewer children are born, then you end up in a situation like the west, where we don't have enough reproduction taking place.
  

Much of international affairs these days inspires pessimism (US debt, Afghanistan, Mexico, etc.). Demographics are just one more (big) cause for concern.