Election Optimism/Pessimism

As you can imagine, this blog will be voting, and pulling, for Mitt Romney tomorrow. As we head into election day, I really don't know how to feel. I have reasons for strong optimism, and reasons for dark pessimism. Let me recount some of these reasons.

The Negatives

  • The polls are a bit on the negative side in all the wrong states.
  • Nate Silver's site (*shakes fist)

These negatives are data-based so, while I only listed two bullet points, they are significant. My positives are more intangible, but there are more of them:

The Positives

  • Romney seems to be ahead big with independents, which would suggest Obama needs big Democrat turnout to overcome this, turnout he got in '08 but seems less likely this time around.
  • Romney is getting huge crowds at events; some of Obama's crowds are rather meh.
  • While I would expect folks like Karl Rove and Dick Morris to predict a big Romney win, when people like Michael Barone and George Will do it, I take notice. While they lean right, it does not benefit them at all, and it does hurt them, to be way wrong. So they might be on to something. (Yeah, there are probably similar people on the other side saying the opposite, but I pooh-pooh them) 
  • Early voting numbers seem to have declined for Obama compared to last time.
  • The Redskins Rule
All told, I have to say I'm leaning pessimistic for tomorrow. But I still hold out hope for change.

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