Foreign Affairs Friday: Russia Not Big Enough For Both of Them

When Vladimir Putin stepped down from the Russian presidency last year, as mandated by the term limits provision of the constitution, he got his crony Dmitry Medvedev elected president, and himself appointed Prime Minister. The world saw through this ploy, and recognized that Putin was still the man in charge. However, a new story in Foreign Policy suggests that a shift might be coming.

Russia was able to throw its weight around when oil was expensive last year, but now that its price has dropped, Russia has a lot less cash to play with. Russia has also been hit hard by the economic crisis. These factors may provide an opening for Medvedev, as the popularity which has allowed Putin to do as he wishes declines. Medvedev has distanced himself from Putin on some issues.

Russians have noticed the widening split. In February, the weekly business publication Kommersant-Vlast printed a collection of opinions titled "Will Medvedev Sack Putin? Is It Time for Prime Minister Putin to Answer for Results of Anti-Crisis Efforts?" Although the discussion does not provide a definitive answer, simply posing the question is provocative in a country where the government has muzzled the press for years. Meanwhile, Medvedev's popularity is growing. According to a February 2009 national survey, 73 percent of those polled said they trust him, compared with 56 percent in 2006. Although it is impossible to predict what will happen, one thing is certain: The current power dynamic is shifting, and shifting fast. If the trend continues, Medvedev will undoubtedly begin asking himself why he is still playing second fiddle.

The authors suggest new anti-corruption legislation as a potential tool for Medvedev. This article seems overly optimistic, though. I wouldn't be so quick to count Putin out, as he has proven that he can be ruthless if necessary. This is something to look out for, though.